Tie Breaking Headspin

OK, so this you are confused about this whole 3A District 5 playoff scenario?  Join the club.  The district ended in a 3 way tie for first.  The first tie breaker is head to head.  But that doesn’t break the tie.  Why?  Because Russell beat West, West beat Fleming and Fleming beat Russell. 

The next step in a fair, yet confusing and somewhat antiquated tie break basically states that each team tied can select 4 teams they have beaten (not involved in the tie breaker) and earn 1 point for each win those teams have.  If there is still a tie, another team is selected, if still tied another team, etc until the tie is broken.  If the tie is still not broken, then it is up to the Commissioner to break the tie. 

So, to help me decipher this fair, yet confusing and slightly antiquated system, I gathered a couple of friends from NASA and access to their super computers, contacted a few football buddies and 3 MySpace friends and went to work. 

With the point system, Fleming Co does not have enough quality wins that they can gather enough points for first or second.  Therefore they are in 3^rd place and are headed to Lawrence Co to play the Bulldogs.  This much is certain.  But for West Carter and Russell there seem to be more scenarios than Kellogg’s has corn flakes.

Below is a chart of the current situation with the 4 teams West and Russell would choose for their tie breaking teams marked by an *

West Carter	Opponent	Wins (next game)
	Powell Co *	6 (vs Lexington Christian 6-3)
	East Carter	1 (@Fleming Co)
	Nicholas Co *	5 (vs Bath Co)
	Bath Co *	5 (@Nicholas Co)
	Pendleton Co*	1 (vs Bishop Brossart)
	Lewis Co	1 (vs Fairview)
Game Remaining	Magoffin Co	2

Russell	Opponent	Wins (next game)
	Greenup Co*	5 – Season Over
	Ironton *	5 (South Point)
	Boyd Co*	3 (vs Tolsia)
	Bath Co*	5 (@Nicholas Co)
	Pendleton Co	1 (vs Bishop Brossart)
	Lewis Co	1 (vs Fairview)
Game Remaining	Raceland	5

As of October 29, the writing of this Blog (or at least when I started writing it)

West Carter has 17 points  and Russell has 18 points.

So let’s play out some scenarios and see what happens.

RUSSELL WINS and WEST LOSES

West Carter	Opponent	Wins (next game)
	Powell Co *	6 (vs Lexington Christian 6-3)       7 with win
	East Carter	1 (@Fleming Co)
	Nicholas Co *	5 (vs Bath Co)                                   6 with win
	Bath Co *	5 (@Nicholas Co)                             5 with loss
	Pendleton Co*	1 (vs Bishop Brossart)
	Lewis Co	1 (vs Fairview)
		EC, Lewis or PC wins                       2

Russell	Opponent	Wins (next game)
	Greenup Co*	5 – Season Over
	Ironton *	5 (South Point)
	Boyd Co	3 (vs Tolsia)
	Bath Co*	5 (@Nicholas Co)
	Pendleton Co	1 (vs Bishop Brossart)
	Lewis Co	1 (vs Fairview)
	Raceland *	5

This one is simple, if Russell wins and West loses, regardless of the outcome of the rest of the games, Russell is the district champs.  Russell would have at least 20 points (more if Ironton and/or Bath wins and would win it outright.  For the sake of this scenario, we assume Ironton and Bath lose).  If West loses the most they could get would be 20 and that only happen if Powell, Nicholas and either Lewis or Pendleton wins.  In this scenario, each team would add a 5^th team to earn points.  Russell would get 3 points from Boyd Co, the most West could get would be 2.  Therefore Russell would be the District Champs.

WEST WINS and RUSSELL LOSES

West Carter	Opponent	Wins (next game)
	Powell Co *	6 (vs Lexington Christian 6-3)
	East Carter	1 (@Fleming Co)
	Nicholas Co *	5 (vs Bath Co)
	Bath Co *	5 (@Nicholas Co)
	Pendleton Co	1 (vs Bishop Brossart)
	Lewis Co	1 (vs Fairview)
	Magoffin Co *	2

Russell	Opponent	Wins (next game)
	Greenup Co*	5 – Season Over
	Ironton *	5 (South Point)
	Boyd Co*	3 (vs Tolsia)
	Bath Co*	5 (@Nicholas Co)
	Pendleton Co	1 (vs Bishop Brossart)
	Lewis Co	1 (vs Fairview)

Here is where things can get complicated and Russell needs help.

If West wins then they are assured 19 points.  If Russell loses the minimum number they can get is 18 points.  However, West can possibly get 20 points if Powell beats LCA and Nicolas beats Bath Co.  If Bath beats Nicholas Co they still get 20 points, but since Russell beat Bath they will get to 19 points.   Then Russell needs Ironton AND Boyd Co to win to get them to 21.  If Boyd or Ironton loses, then Russell is tied at 20 with West.

If Powell loses to LCA and Nicholas beats Bath Co, then West is at 19.  Russell would be at 19 if Ironton wins and 20 if Boyd wins.  If Boyd or Ironton loses it’s a tie at 19.  If Boyd and Ironton lose, West wins.

 A tie in either scenario above goes to a 5^th team.  Regardless of what Lewis and Pendleton do, it is a wash for both teams.  So they go to the next team….Russell has no next team, West Carter has beaten East Carter so West would get an extra point and be District Champ.

Are you confused yet????

Now get this, Bath beats Nicholas and Powell loses to LCA.  West is at 19 points.  Russell then gets 5 from Greenup and 6 from Bath giving them 11.  An Ironton win gives them 6 for a total of 17 and Boyd Co wins or loses, doesn’t matter, they already have 3 wins that gives Russell 20

BOTH TEAMS WIN

West Carter	Opponent	Wins (next game)
	Powell Co *	6 (vs Lexington Christian 6-3)
	East Carter	1 (@Fleming Co)
	Nicholas Co *	5 (vs Bath Co)
	Bath Co *	5 (@Nicholas Co)
	Pendleton Co	1 (vs Bishop Brossart)
	Lewis Co	1 (vs Fairview)
	Magoffin Co *	2

Russell	Opponent	Wins (next game)
	Greenup Co*	5 – Season Over
	Ironton *	5 (South Point)
	Boyd Co	3 (vs Tolsia)
	Bath Co*	5 (@Nicholas Co)
	Pendleton Co	1 (vs Bishop Brossart)
	Lewis Co	1 (vs Fairview)
	Raceland *	5

If both teams win, Russell will have a minimum of 20 points (5 each from Greenup, Ironton, Bath and Raceland).  The most West could get is 20 points (7 from Powell, 6 from Nicholas, 5 from Bath, 2 from Magoffin)  Again in this scenario Russell wins the next tie break because of their win over Boyd Co which would give them 3 wins, the most West could get is 2 and that is if East, Lewis or Pendleton wins

BOTH TEAMS LOSE

West Carter	Opponent	Wins (next game)
	Powell Co *	6 (vs Lexington Christian 6-3)
	East Carter	1 (@Fleming Co)
	Nicholas Co *	5 (vs Bath Co)
	Bath Co *	5 (@Nicholas Co)
	Pendleton Co*	1 (vs Bishop Brossart)
	Lewis Co	1 (vs Fairview)

Russell	Opponent	Wins (next game)
	Greenup Co*	5 – Season Over
	Ironton *	5 (South Point)
	Boyd Co*	3 (vs Tolsia)
	Bath Co*	5 (@Nicholas Co)
	Pendleton Co	1 (vs Bishop Brossart)
	Lewis Co	1 (vs Fairview)

If both teams lose, then it gets real tricky. 

West would get 20 points if Nicholas, Powell and either East, Lewis or Pendleton wins.

If that happens, Russell can only get 20 and that is if Ironton and Boyd Co win.

In this scenario West would get the district championship because of the tie breaker mentioned earlier in the “West wins Russell loses” section.

If Bath wins, Powell loses and East, Lewis and Pendleton lose West can only get 18 points.  Russell could get a minimum of 19  points and win the District.

So, basically if Russell wins they are the district champs.  If Russell wins their game against Raceland they will have at least 20 points in the first tie breaker and 21 if Ironton wins, 22 if both Ironton and Boyd win.  The most West Carter can get is 7 points from Powell with a win, 6 points from Nicholas, 5 points from Bath and 2 from Magoffin which equals 20 points.  Even if Ironton and Boyd lose, Russell wins this tie break because their 5^th team is Boyd who will have at least 3 wins, the most West could get in the second tie break is 2.

I don’t know if that clears it up or not and anyone reading this that notices an error, well, let me know, but I don’t know if I will correct it or not, cause I have been working on this for a very long time!  LOL

The game to watch other than Russell vs Raceland and West vs Magoffin:

KEY GAME:  Nicholas vs Bath.  Comets are definitely rooting for the Blue Jackets.